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CIK 1541354

ASPIRITY HOLDINGS LLC
CIK 0001541354 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
86.7
composite ยท 4 signals ยท TRIGGERED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-12 ยท FY 2016-12-31 ยท TRIGGERED100.0

Restatement predictor

F-Score 39.84 โ€” misstatement risk 39.8x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2017-04-28) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 39.842,
  "probability": 0.14741,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.1784,
    "drec": -0.1978,
    "dinv": -0.0035,
    "soft": 0.9651,
    "dcs": -0.4487,
    "droa": -5.3088,
    "issue": 0
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2016-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541354/000149315217004516/0001493152-17-004516-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2017-04-28"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2014-12-31 ยท ELEVATED94.0

Tax arbitrage

[FY2014 data, stale โ€” no more recent pretax-income figure in XBRL] ETR 0.0% vs 21% statutory โ€” gap persistent across 1 of 1 years
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K/A on SEC.gov (filed 2016-05-23) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2014-12-31": 0
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2014-12-31": 0.21
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2016-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541354/000149315216010216/0001493152-16-010216-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K/A",
    "filed": "2016-05-23"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2016-12-31 ยท ELEVATED100.0

Zombie / distress

Interest coverage -1.93x below 1.0
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2017-04-28) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2016-12-31": -1.926,
    "2015-12-31": -2.657,
    "2014-12-31": 2.808,
    "2013-12-31": 2.403
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 2,
  "altman_z_double_prime": -68.841,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": -8336076,
    "interest_expense_t": 4327500
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2016-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541354/000149315217004516/0001493152-17-004516-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2017-04-28"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2016-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -17.24 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2017-04-28) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -17.242,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 0.314,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1,
    "SGI": 0.45,
    "DEPI": 1.204,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 19.635,
    "TATA": -1.618
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "GMI",
    "AQI",
    "SGAI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.1784,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 13542363,
    "revenue_t1": 30109090,
    "total_assets_t": 2211544,
    "net_income_t": -12071707,
    "cfo_t": -9315937
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2016-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1541354/000149315217004516/0001493152-17-004516-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2017-04-28"
  }
}