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ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CIK 0001267395 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
79.5
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-05 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท ELEVATED100.0

Tax arbitrage

ETR 23.4% vs 21% statutory โ€” gap persistent across 2 of 3 years
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 20-F on SEC.gov (filed 2026-03-30) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.234,
    "2024-12-31": -0.0474,
    "2023-12-31": -0.3281
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": -0.024,
    "2024-12-31": 0.2574,
    "2023-12-31": 0.5381
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1267395/000126739526000007/0001267395-26-000007-index.htm",
    "form": "20-F",
    "filed": "2026-03-30"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN26.7

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.57 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 20-F on SEC.gov (filed 2026-03-30) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.567,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1,
    "SGI": 0.988,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 1.275,
    "LVGI": 1,
    "TATA": -0.006
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "AQI",
    "DEPI",
    "LVGI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.0062,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 3219600000,
    "revenue_t1": 3260300000,
    "total_assets_t": 16309600000,
    "net_income_t": 340200000,
    "cfo_t": 439000000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1267395/000126739526000007/0001267395-26-000007-index.htm",
    "form": "20-F",
    "filed": "2026-03-30"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN19.9

Restatement predictor

F-Score 0.60 โ€” at or below the population base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 20-F on SEC.gov (filed 2026-03-30) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 0.597,
  "probability": 0.00221,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.0062,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": null,
    "soft": 0.8983,
    "dcs": -0.0125,
    "droa": -0.01,
    "issue": 0
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1267395/000126739526000007/0001267395-26-000007-index.htm",
    "form": "20-F",
    "filed": "2026-03-30"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2012-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Zombie / distress

[FY2012 data, stale โ€” no more recent EBIT figure in XBRL] Interest coverage 9.50x โ€” servicing debt from operations
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2015-02-23) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2012-12-31": 9.502,
    "2011-12-31": -3.604,
    "2010-12-31": 17.424,
    "2009-12-31": 21.962
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 1.216,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 293600000,
    "interest_expense_t": 30900000
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1267395/000126739515000014/0001267395-15-000014-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2015-02-23"
  }
}