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AVB

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC.
CIK 0000915912 · EDGAR ↗
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
79.6
composite · 4 signals · TRIGGERED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from — no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded — never a guess.

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Signals

P-05 · FY 2025-12-31 · TRIGGERED100.0

Tax arbitrage

ETR -0.1% vs 21% statutory — gap persistent across 3 of 3 years
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": -0.0011,
    "2024-12-31": 0.0004,
    "2023-12-31": 0.0108
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.2111,
    "2024-12-31": 0.2096,
    "2023-12-31": 0.1992
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915912/000091591226000004/0000915912-26-000004-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-12 · FY 2025-12-31 · TRIGGERED67.0

Restatement predictor

F-Score 2.01 — misstatement risk 2.0x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 2.009,
  "probability": 0.00743,
  "components": {
    "rsst": null,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": null,
    "soft": 0.9916,
    "dcs": 0.0436,
    "droa": null,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915912/000091591226000004/0000915912-26-000004-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-01 · FY 2025-12-31 · CLEAN29.4

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.47 — no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.472,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1,
    "SGI": 1.044,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 1.093,
    "TATA": 0
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "AQI",
    "DEPI",
    "SGAI",
    "TATA"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": null,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 3040725000,
    "revenue_t1": 2913757000,
    "total_assets_t": 22192137000,
    "net_income_t": null,
    "cfo_t": 1671105000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915912/000091591226000004/0000915912-26-000004-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-13 · FY 2025-12-31 · CLEAN0.0

Zombie / distress

Interest coverage 7.80x — servicing debt from operations
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 7.797,
    "2024-12-31": 8.43,
    "2023-12-31": 8.693,
    "2022-12-31": 7.395
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 1.844,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 2020949000,
    "interest_expense_t": 259181000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915912/000091591226000004/0000915912-26-000004-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}